Driving with blinders: how optimism bias skews risk perception

When it comes to driving, most people don't think about risk until it's too late. That's because of something called optimism bias - a tendency to believe that bad things are less likely to happen to us than to others. Professor Ola Svenson explains how this bias can lead drivers to underestimate dangerous situations and overestimate their own ability to avoid them.  

Take speeding as an example. A driver might not feel a significant difference between 30 km/h and 40 km/h, but in a real-world scenario - like a child running into the road-those extra 10 km/h could be the difference between a near miss and a tragedy. The disconnect stems from how drivers perceive speed and risk, often leaving critical gaps in judgment.  

Advanced driver monitoring systems could help, but trust is key. “Good” drivers won’t mind becoming better drivers, but if these systems make mistakes or feel too intrusive, drivers may reject them. To succeed, they must be adaptive, intuitive, and enhance - rather than replace - the driver's experience.  

Ultimately, understanding the psychological mechanisms behind driving decisions is essential. With better design and awareness, we can align technology with human behavior and make the roads safer for everyone.